Good Day Forte?

    Matt Forte's season ended early in 2011. Forte sprained his MCL in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on December 4th and was eventually placed on injured reserve for the remainder of the 2011 season. Even though he missed the remaining four games of the season he played well enough to earn his first pro bowl appearance and still finished with almost 1500 yards from scrimmage and accounted for 46.2 percent of the Bears' offense. In fact, ever since Matt Forte entered the league as the Bears 2nd round draft pick (#44) in 2008, he has been in the top ten hn most yards from scrimmage 3 of his 4 years in the league. In 2011, still on his rookie contract, Matt Forte made a base salary of $600,000, which I'm sure we can all agree is under paid for someone of Forte's production and importance to the bears offense. After the 2011 season the Bears and Forte and his agent sat down to discuss a new deal for the pro bowl running back but the two sides still haven't reached an agreement and the main hurdle is the guaranteed portion of the contract. The Bears are wary of breaking the bank for a running back going in to his fourth year in the league, when studies and stats show that a running back's production falls off after his 5th year in the league. The Bears would like to re-sign Forte long term and make him an integral part of their offense, but they don't want to be handcuffed with a bad contract should Forte begin to lose his legs.

    Forte is looking for a new contract with the Bears with at least $20 million guaranteed, and the Bears seem to not be budging on their highest offer of $14 million.  From Forte's perspective he realizes running backs very rarely get TWO big money deals and thus would like to get paid as much as he can in case, just as the Bears are worried about, his production dips. He wants long term financial security,and who can blame him. The Bears on the other hand look at the Tennessee Titians and say "That's not going to be us". The Titans are handcuffed by Chris Johnson's 4-year $53.5 million contract with $30 million guaranteed.
After a lengthy holdout during the 2011 season he basically disappeared from the football field. So mtch so that reports surfaced that the Titians were so afraid  of CJ2K's contract that they might cut him before the 2012 league year started saving $17 million. It seems the Bears appreciate Matt Forte and everything he's done but will not let themselves be handcuffed by a CJ2K-like contract. Now begins the leverage game.

    Michael Bush signed with the Bears on March, 22nd for 4 years, $14 million with $7 million guaranteed. A small price to pay for a very reliable bruising back that gives you a solid third down and goal line threat.
But what does the Bush signing mean for Forte? I have spoken with people who see Forte as expendable with the signing of Bush and the trade for Brandon Marshall and would like to explore trade options. The problem with trading Matt Forte is that the market for running backs has changed over the last few years. Most teams are of the thinking, and I agree, that if you have an offensive line that can move people off the ball and get out and block you can throw any average running back in the backfield and they will produce. Because of that way of thinking, the price teams are willing to pay is dramatically decreased. At this moment I'd say Matt Forte is worth a second round pick to a very desperate team. The Michael Bush signing gives the Bears leverage plain and simple. Leverage to say to Forte and his agent "You aren't our only option at running back and we are willing to part ways if we cant reach an agreement".

    First of all I'm not giving Matt Forte any more than $17 million guaranteed, he's very good, but not a top tier back. If a deal with Forte can be worked out, the Bears offense would be very formidable (despite a still uncertain offensive line and no number two receiver). But the Bears offense would look the best it has looked since 2006. Brandon Marshall as the number one receiver (FINALLY!!) with built in chemistry with Jay Cutler, a healthy Cutler, a more experienced o-line, a multi talented every down back in Forte, a good possession receiver in Earl Bennett and a third down/goal line back in Bush. Why would anyone want to  trade Forte and take a weapon away from Jay Cutler when the fans have been clamoring for more weapons since that lovely day in April 2009 when Cutler became a Bear. Why trade a multi talented, hardworking back who has had spectacular success behind a terrible offense line that couldn't block a breeze from a candle? Those who want to take away a weapon to try and trade up to get a Michael Floyd or Justin Blackmon in the first round seem to forget the "stud" first round receivers don't usually pan out. Since 2008 only 2 wide receivers have made the pro bowl (Percy Harvin and A.J. Green) and in 2008 no receivers were taken in the first round. Also, since 2008 11 receivers have been taken in the first round of the NFL Draft and only 2 of them have had 1,000 yard seasons.  Why waste a first round pick on a receiver (that recent history tells isn't a very good move) when the offensive line still needs help and a rush end is needed to play opposite Julius Peppers both of which you can find with your first round pick (#19) and then look for a receiver later in the draft.

    No one really knows how the Forte/Bears contract situation is gonna play out but now that the running back market has shown itself to Forte and his agent I think he will hold out for a little more guaranteed money (from $14 million up to maybe $17 million) and sign mid training camp, I do not foresee a Vincent Jackson-like holdout. If he doesn't sign, the Bears will be missing a big piece of their offense and I'm not sure Michael Bush can handle being an every down bruising running back (you saw how well that played out for Brandon Jacobs).

    I would like the Bears to reward Forte for his magnificent play and hard work, while dealing with a bad offensive line and no other receiving weapons to take attention away from him, but not at the expense of the Bears' financial future.

JxV